How Much Housing Do We Need in Massachusetts?
Is QUANTITY of housing the issue? Will UPZONING ever solve housing the housing crisis?
We often hear "we need more housing!". The state says we need hundreds of thousands a new units by 2030. But where do these numbers come from? We can't tell. BUT we decided to examine the number ourselves.
Here are some numbers to consider, for Massachusetts:
1. "natural increase in population" = births minus deaths- births in Mass, averaging about 75,000 [going down]/year.- deaths about 60,000/year [and going up]
- 75,000 minutes 60,000 = 15,000/year
- we'll consider immigration, below
click here for the source for these numbers
Natural Birth rate = 15,000/year
2. Then we took the "natural increase" and divided it by the average number of people per household to find out how many "new housing units" we "need" to house the natural increase in households.
In Massachusetts, the divide by average household side to get net "need": 15,000/year divided by average household number 2.46
In Massachusetts, the divide by average household side to get net "need": 15,000/year divided by average household number 2.46
Average # of people per household = 2.6
3. number housing units "needed" to house natural increase in housholds- divide 15,000 by 2.46 = about 6,000/year "needed"
[assuming no migration, which we'll get to in a moment]
New Housing Units needed to house natural birth rate = ~6,000/year
4. Between 2022 and 2020, almost 38,000 housing units were created. Divide that by 2 years, that's almost 18,000 new housing units/yearsource for 2022 numbersource for 2020 number
Almost 18,000 new housing units/year are created in Massachusetts
- Is that enough new housing? - Is the "housing crisis" a crisis of housing quantity? - or will the "housing crisis" require other solutions besides "new building"?
It appears that there is plenty of new housing being built to satisfy the need for the natural birth rate in Massachusetts.
But there are two major housing questions to consider:
A. How do we ensure that housing is affordable to people who need housing the most?
B. What about migration?
C. Bottom line
A. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Will it be solved with more free-market building policies? or are other solutionds required?
Many people believe if we just allow enough building to "satisfy the market" that housing prices/rents will go down, or at least they won't go up as fast. There are major studies saying yes and no to these claims. What we do know is that there seems to be lots of building, and the rents still keep going up.
One developer told us that developers will never overbuild because the value of their assets will go down. Makse sense.
We researched this and found a VIDEO explaining how rezoning can be super dangerous to tenants, see this from a housing justice group in San Francisco, and it did NOT make housing more affordable. They helped get the rezoning passed because they were told "we need more housing" and "the best housing solution is to allow more building" to "relieve market pressure" and the rest of the b.s. the people in the construction industry food chain tell us. The zoning passed, and all it did was fuel gentrification. They didn't understand how it could have failed.
So what do we do?
One thing we know is that developers will not build anything new at a loss. And the minimum cost for a new condo in Massachusetts is $700,000. So unless the new building is subsidized heavily, that price won't come down. We could allow a developer to build MORE and then in compensation they could build "some" units that are "affordable"? how affordable. The state tells us that this plan will NOT WORK for any new housing unit for anyone making less than $80K/year. Sooo... where is the crisis? is it for people making $80K/year or more/ or for people making less than $80K/year. We claim it's for people making less than $80K/year.
And while we claimed to not try and convince you of anything, we can't shy away from these conclusions. And we invite you to contact us if you think we've got any of this wrong. We'd be happy to be proven wrong and find that these solutions will actually work. We just haven't found that free market supply side housing solutions work.
So what then?! Well. The numbers indicate that if the state/fed provide low cost treasury bonds to housing trusts that these trusts could buy up hundreds of thousands of "naturally occurring afforable housing units" and keep them affordable forever! Such a solution seems a natural solution both the housing crisis and the environmental crisis.
B. HOUSING FOR IMMIGRANTS
Accomodating migration is an important matter to consider.
The number of new housing units being built currently in Massachusetts appears to satisfy the [NEED] "quantity" of units required for the natural birth rate in Massachusetts, we want to encourage people of different culturers to move to Massachusetts, right?
While the state is already producing 3 times more new housing than is needed for the natural birth rate, what about migration?
MIRA reports about immigrants who have come to Massachusetts:
"...as of fall 2023, about half the family shelter caseload was made up of new internationalarrivals. For this reason, the state’s data on use of the state’s emergency housing assistance system is the best proxy we have at this time for determining numbers of new arrivals to our area. As of January 2024, there were 7,545 families in emergency assistance sheltersand hotels/motels, meaning about 3,500 of them were likely immigrant families. We also know that between January and November 2023, a total of 43,282 immigrants who received a notice to appear in court resided in Massachusetts and have been allowed to stay in the U.S. to await their court dates"
From the report, we can presume that in the order of additional 8,000 housing units/year are required, in terms of quantity to house the families in shelters, including immigrants.
BOTTOM LINE
The natural birth rate requires an additional 6,000 housing units/year
There are about 8,000 families in shelters
There are about 18,000 new housing units being built in Massachusetts per year
The EXISTING NEW BUILDING RATE OF 18,000 new housing units
appears to cover "the need" for housing.
Some have said that we "need" to build more housing because people "want" to come to Massachusetts. Some say that if someone "wants" to come to Massachsuetts, then that is a "need" that government must satisfy.
But is it?
Questions to ponder...
Is there a difference between desire and need? If so, what is the difference? what should government focus on?
What if everyone in the world wanted to come to Massachusetts? Is there a point where we built "enough"?
Is there a limit to the land's ability to handle the wastewater and drinking water? so we want to build up suburbs into cities to accommodate the desire to move to Massachusetts?
Would it be better to send money to places that have a lot of empty housing already instesad of building new housing in hot markets where crowding is becoming an issue?
Isn't the desire to come to Massachusetts endless? If so, Is it our duty to ["should we"] satisfy that endless thirst? at the cost of MBTA Zoning displacing lower income tenants? at what cost to the environment? at what cost to local taxpayers?
If this is a mater of helping companies house workers who want to come to Massachusetts for jobs, why not create cities around corporate centers where public infrastructure already exists? and have the corporations foot the bill? instead of asking taxpayers to subsidize what corporations "need?
Do we want to distinquish between WANT and NEED?
What "is" the REAL housing crisis? We believe the "housing crisis" is NOT a crisis of quantity of housing, but it is the pricing of housing for people making less than $80K/year, and the crisis of destruction of environmental resources. A possible solution: put more money into Affordable Housing Rehab Trusts focused on buying/rehabbing NOAH, buying up under utilized buildings [malls, etc] and converting them to housing, and converting huge housing, that we'll house more people at a lower cost to taxpayers and the environment, without displacing tenants. So rather than putting so much money [and public resources] into building new, that we could...ACTUALLY SOLVE THESE MULTIPLE CRISES...
What "is" the REAL housing crisis? We believe the "housing crisis" is NOT a crisis of quantity of housing, but it is the pricing of housing for people making less than $80K/year, and the crisis of destruction of environmental resources. A possible solution: put more money into Affordable Housing Rehab Trusts focused on buying/rehabbing NOAH, buying up under utilized buildings [malls, etc] and converting them to housing, and converting huge housing, that we'll house more people at a lower cost to taxpayers and the environment, without displacing tenants. So rather than putting so much money [and public resources] into building new, that we could...ACTUALLY SOLVE THESE MULTIPLE CRISES...